Data drives our actions, from selecting the markets to invest in, to the deployment of capital, and what options exist when time to exit. It’s not gut or intuition, it’s all math.
Ok, so where do we source our data, and why should you care?
First, our sources. The following are some of the inputs to our decision making process….and second, our mission is to provide secure stable investments. That comes from a rigorous reliance on data, sourced from experts in each field, such that we make our decision not on instinct or hopeful wishes, but on the best data available.
Some of the source material are forecasts, and there is one thing we know with 100% certainty, every forecast ever made was wrong. This is why we stress test our models (underwrites) to reduce the potential impact of an unfavorable variance in any one forecast.
Now, to our sources.
The Commerce Department collects, stores, and analyzes a wealth of information, including data on the Nation’s economy, population, and environment. These data go to the core of the Department’s mission to create the conditions for economic growth and opportunity for all communities.
Federal Reserve Economic Data, FRED is an online database consisting of hundreds of thousands of economic data time series from scores of national, international, public, and private sources.
FRED, created and maintained by the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, goes far beyond simply providing data: It combines data with a powerful mix of tools that help the user understand, interact with, display, and disseminate the data. In essence, FRED helps users tell their data stories.
Freddie Mac financing spans the nation, including large metropolitan areas, mid-market cities and smaller communities, to fund multifamily rental properties with 5 or more units.
Freddie Mac’s research department provides market insights into industry trends, forecasts and more. Their annual report, and mid-year updates, are a staple of our forecasting process.
Chatham provides interest rate forecasts, termed Forward Curves, for both short term and long term rates. The Term SOFR forward curves represent market-implied future settings for 1-month and 3-month Term SOFR, index rates commonly used in floating rate commercial real estate.
The Treasury forward curves represent market-implied future yields of on-the-run U.S. Treasury notes of different tenors, with our focus on the 10-Year Treasury. Each curve is derived from observable market data, including futures contracts, market swap rates, and current outstanding Treasury instruments.
One of our primary sources of commercial real estate analytics, CoStar reports cover recent trends and the future outlook for a market, submarket, or a specific asset, with key performance indicators based on our extensive market research.